Predictions!

I have been fascinated with running times predictions, i.e., predicting your time in one race, based on times in other races, ever since I read a 1977 book by Manfred Steffny "Marathoning" (see previous blog). From Manfred’s book I first read about the possibility of predicting your marathon time, based on your 10K time. He gives a very simple formula:

Marathon time = 10K time x 4.666 (1)
He later modified to: 10K in 30 minutes -> Marathon in 2:20. For every extra minute in 10K, add 5 minutes to the marathon (2)
A more conservative estimate (recommended for beginners) is even more simple: Marathon Time = 10K time x 5 (3).

Right now my 10K PR is 41:20 (2007). My best marathon time is 3:22 (2009).

(1) 41:20 x 4.666 = 3:13
(2) 2:20 + 5x(41:20 – 30) = 2:20 + 56:30 = 3:16:30
(3) 41:20 x 5 = 3:26:30

Seems like my actual time is between (2) and (3). I think formula (3) is more typical for people without enough marathon experience/training and it is very easy to remember: Formula (1) might be my upper limit and (2) something to aim for.

Here is a table published in Manfred Steffny’s book:

Max. possible Realistic
10Km marathon time marathon time
------ ------------- -------------
27:00 2:05:00 2:08:30
28:00 2:10:00 2:14:00
29:00 2:15:00 2:19:30
30:00 2:20:00 2:25:00
31:00 2:25:00 2:30:30
32:00 2:30:00 2:36:00
33:00 2:35:00 2:43:00
34:00 2:40:00 2:49:00
35:00 2:45:00 2:55:00
36:00 2:50:00 3:00:00
37:00 2:55:00 3:07:00
38:00 3:00:00 3:15:00
39:00 3:05:00 3:20:00
40:00 3:10:00 3:25:00
42:30 3:22:00 3:42:30
45:00 3:35:00 4:00:00
47:30 3:47:30 4:20:00
50:00 4:00:00 4:40:00

The Realist time is more appropriate for someone’s first marathons. The Table stops at 50min. Older runners and women can use the formulas.

I have devised two more simple formulas to predict marathon times from 10mile and ½ Marathon times:

(4) Marathon = (10 mile time) x 3
(5) Marathon = (1/2 Marathon) x 2 + 15 minutes

(4) My 10mile PR is 1:08:31 (2007) x 3 = 3:25:33
(5) My ½ Marathon PR is 1:32:50 (2008) x 2 + 15min = 3:20:40

Both are reasonable.

But the mother of all prediction calculators in the internet is here:
http://www.runningforfitness.org/calc/rp.php

You enter your age, gender, and one race time and it gives you several predictors, plus an average prediction. Cool! But there is more in this web site... It will also calculate how weight loss will affect your running times and more.

Staying on the topic of Marathon time predictions, I tried this web site and here is what I get:

Distance PR ----------- Predicted Marathon
5K – 20:06 -------------------- 3:10:33 - 3:25:57
10K – 41:20 ------------------ 3:10:11 – 3:24:52
10 miles – 1:08:31 ---------- 3:10:35 – 3:23:29
½ Marathon = 1:32:50 ----- 3:13:57 – 3:25:09

The first marathon predicted time is an average of several formulas. The 2nd time is called the “Purdy Formula” and it seems more realistic to me. To read more about these formulas, go to the link above.

Why I support the Towpath Marathon?

The Towpath marathon is dear into my heart because:

1. It is a beautiful area, a great local natural treasure
2. It comes as close as 2 miles from my house
3. We (me, wife, running friends) regularly run there throughout the year
4. I ran my first race there, a 5K in 2002 (21:27)
5. I have run the Towpath marathon every year since 2003
6. 2003 - Two people relay, I ran 15.2 miles in 2:00 (7:54 pace)
7. 2004 - First full marathon! Goal (under 4 hours) achieved: 3:55
8. 2005 - Improved Course time: 3:45
9. 2006 - Again improved course time: 3:36 (course record so far)
10. 2007 - The heat and fast start took their toll.... 3:47

So, I have to run the 2008 Marathon and keep the steak alive

I don't feel I have recovered sufficiently from the Akron marathon... I struggled last Sunday in an attempted long run. The best I can aim for is a course record. This is my goal, but it is hard to achieve. The running surface of the towpath does not favor speed. I run faster in road marathons. In addition, today (Friday) I carried some heavy boxes and my back is hurting (I had a severe back pain problem & herniated disc in 2001).

Target: 3:35

Wish me luck :) I'll be at the "Pasta dinner" tomorrow 5:30 pm (Quality Inn, Richfield, on Brecksville Road, very close to my house)

My Marathon History

I have run the Marathon, 4 times so far, once a year, the Towpath Marathon. You can see my times in the table here.

2004: This was my first Marathon and my aim was 1) to finish, 2) to finish under 4 hours. I ran with worn/inferior shoes and inadequate training (19 miles longest run) but finished with a respectable 3:55. However, I developed ITBS which took several months to clear up.

2005: With good shoes, and without worrying about time, I improved my time to 3:45. No problems, but it did feel exceptionally hard and recovery was harder. Again, I did not have sufficient long runs.

2006: This was the surprise year. I was prepared for the worse since a trip to Greece had disrupted my long runs, plus my racing times (5K, 19K, 1/2M) this year were slower than the previous year. But I ran a strong race and finished at 3:36. That included at 2 ½ minutes delay to change shoes.

2007: All indicators were pointing to a terrific marathon: I had lost weight and had PRed in all distances. I was a leaner and faster runner, plus for the first time the 20 mile training runs (at 8:30 pace) felt very easy. Seemed like the 3:30 goal was easily within reach. However, minor injuries prevented me from running the last two weeks before the marathon. The first 12 miles were fast (7:30 to 7:40) – possibly a mistake - but my legs got tired and by mile 19 I was walking and was considering dropping off the race. The hot weather contributed to slower times and many runners were walking in the last miles (The marathon was the same day with the Chicago marathon that ended in a distaster). I finally finished at 3:47 and gained new respect for the distance (never underestimate the Marathon). I tried an ice bath and that helped a lot initially but recovery was rather slow. This race took a lot out of me.

2008: This is my first Spring Marathon and first all-roads marathon. I have trained OK (I could have done more long runs – 3d weekend prevented me from running a long 20+ mile run 3 weeks before the marathon). I have lost a bit of weight and my running times are better than last year’s (so far). If the weather cooperates, I think I have a shot at 3:30 but it is going to be difficult.

Hermes 10 Mile Race - History & Predictions

I have run this race 3 times now, starting from the inaugural race in 2005. Here are my times:

2005 – 1:16:30 – 97/692, 11 ag (34F, freezing rain)
2006 – 1:14:52 – 128/840, 17 ag (60 Foggy)
2007 – 1:11:44 – 86/778, 11 ag (50 Rainy)

The inaugural race was done with freezing rain and I was running with shorts! I got hypothermia at the end :). In 2007 I was just coming out from the Detox diet supervised by my wife and I was feeling strong and lean at 168 lbs.

Last year's race went very well for me so my goal for this year’s race is simply to improve my time from last year. If I run strong, I might even break 1:10 (for that, I would need a 7 min/mi pace - the good thing with 10 mile races is that it is easy to figure out pace for a given time and visa versa!)

Here is the report from last year’s race:

So, here I am, showing up for the 10 mi race in downtown Cleveland, with new
shoes, new shorts ($40!!! that's insane!), new socks ($10!) and down to 168
lbs after a 11 day diet.

I did not know what to expect.... The weather was crummy... started raining
just when the race started, but it was not too bad.

Result: I DID GREAT, improving my time from last year by almost 3 minutes!

Mile - 2006 - 2007 - Difference (seconds)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 7:09 - 7:03 - 6
2 - 6:52 - 7:10 +28 (don't know why I went so fast last year)
3 - 7:35 - 7:08 -27
4 - 7:29 - 7:03 -26
5 - 7:16 - 6:49 -27 (downhill, fast times)
6 - 7:21 - 7:11 -10
7 - 7:34 - 7:10 -24
8 - 7:55 - 7:33 -22 (strong head wind)
9 - 8:04 - 7:47 -17 (uphill)
10 - 7:44 - 7:02 -42

The first two miles were actually faster last year. Then I settled in a 27
second faster pace per mile. My pace up to mile 7 was nearly constant,
around 7:10 (mile 5 was downhill). Miles 6-8 were on a straight stretch by
a small airport, felt like a death march (my comment from last year) but
this year I was feeling strong along this stretch. Mile 8 especially was
against a strong head wind, not very pleasant, time slows down. Mile 9 is
uphill (hence the slow times, both years).

A clear difference from last year is in mile 10. Last year I was tired by
then (I remember I was feeling tired the last 3 miles, and the time shows
it) while this year mile 10 is my best mile for the entire race. I finished
with plenty of energy.

Shamrock 15K Personal History and Time Goal

I have run the Shamrock 15K 4 times now. Here is my history:

2004 – 1:12:56 (7:47 pace), 63/156, 10/16 age
2005 – 1:12:10 (7:42 pace), 69/192, 11/26 age
2006 – 1:11:17 (7:36 pace), 77/233, 13/32 age
2007 – 1:08:16 (7:17 pace), 35/155, 8/25 age

As you can see, I have been steadily improving my time every year, by about 1 minute from 04 to 05 and 06 and then a large jump, 3 minutes improvement last year!

My goal, as with any race, is to improve my best course time. I think it will be difficult this year because 1) I did great last year, 2)I feel that I am not in good shape (no running last week, gaining weight, etct) plus 3) the weather/course conditions might be a problem this year. I will do my best nevertheless.

My times per mile in the last two years (last year it was sunny and 40F)

Mile - 2006 - 2007
1 – 6:54 - 6.32 - First 3 miles mostly downhill
2 – 7:18 - 6:53
3 – 7:19 - 6:46
4 – 7:33 - 7:01 - Mostly flat
5 – 8:33 - 8:10 - HUGE hill here! – Most people walk this - I run it :)
6 – 8:04 - 7:42 - Rolling hills follow...
7 – 7:55 - 7:39
8 – 7:49 - 7:26
9 - ?.?? - 7:28
Pace at last 0.4 miles in 2007 - 6:51

It looks like I ran consistently 15 to 30 seconds faster per mile in 2007 vs. 2006. There is no deep strategy here, just stronger & faster running overall.

I have access to my race reports from the previous two years. It is interesting what I wrote in 2006: “My friend Dan did much better with 1:08:21 and he won 5th place in his age group. Maybe next year if I am 10 pounds lighter I might be able to run as fast as Dan.” Well, as it turns out, I did run as fast as Dan, even though I was the same weight. This year I am 5 lbs lighter. Dan is running too (he skipped last year) but he is much better than 2 years ago.