Perfect 10 Miler 2009

OK 10 Miler & the 4th place curse

After the race my wife said "I see nothing Perfect with this 10 miler... For me, it is just an OK 10 Miler..." I think she is referring to the course, with its twists and turns and long uphill stretch. Organization has been great.

The weather was sunny and rather warm. I started fast, averaging 6:35/mile for the first 3 miles (6:46, 6:37, 6:49) . I slowed down in the uphill, as expected, (7:03, 7:10) but the downhill was not much better (6:56, 6:59), I struggled in the last 2 miles (7:16, 7:11) and got passed by a couple of runners.

My final time: 1:08:51 (6:54 pace)
My 10 mile PR (in this course) remains 1:08:31 from 2007



<---- Empty-handed again!


When they posted the results at the end of the race, I was listed 3rd. So, we stayed for the awards. My wife liked the mugs they were giving and she was happy I was getting one. But the final results list me 4th. The 3 guys ahead of me are all 50 years old. It is going to be a long & tough 5 years for me!

I have been hit by the "4th place curse" lately... I finished 4th in the Independence 5K and 4th today (My wife was 4th too, with 1:36:49 – her first race over 10K -, and so did a couple of our running friends).

Next race: River Run 1/2 Marathon (Sept 13)

I signed up for the Akron Marathon last week (it is September 26).
I plan to run it slower, as a training run for the upcoming ATHENS (as in
Athens, Greece) marathon in November (8th)!

Independence 5K – 2009

<-- Example of my fine photographic work. This is a picture of Liz at the finish (she is the one on the left). Her head is missing! That's because I had the digital camera at the top of my film 3d camera. I was only interested in taking the 3d picture. I then snapped the digital picture, without looking at the display, and here are the results!


What will it take for a 50 year old to win an age award in a small local race with a time of 19:31?

Apparently, it will take a new age group... For some unknown reason, Independence age groups are shifted by one year.... Most races have 45-49 and 50-54 age groups. Independence has 46-50 and 51-55. So both my wife and I were the oldest in our age groups and we did not win any awards (in the next age group we would have both been 2nd). I was happy to turn 50, but for Independence I need to wait one more year!

The results:

- George (me): 19:31, 4/21 AG (46-50), 29/350 Overall
- Liz (wife): 26:35, 8/18 AG (46-50), 192 overall
- Lea (daughter): 31:12, 10/12 AG (15-20), 264 overall

I have run this race in 2003, 2004, 2005 and every year I set a PR. The 2005 time was 20:06 and my goal was to beat this time, so I am happy I achieved this, plus my 19:31 is not too far way from my 5K PR (19:19 from 4 weeks ago). The course (redesigned) was a bit complicated, full of turns, which might have contributed to slower times.

I was worried about a recent injury. 10 days ago I injured my lower foot while stretching after a run! At first I could not run (was hurting even when walking) but it improved quickly. During warmup for the race, I could feel it, but when the race started, any pain or discomfort instantly disappeared! It seems that the adrenaline rush is acting as an analgesic. Only at mile 2.5 I started feeling a slight discomfort but it did not slow me down.

My mile splits according to the Garmin: 6:00 (the time called at this mile split was 6:15), 6:25, 6:33, 5:37 (last 0.1).

Next Race: Perfect 10 miler!

50K 2009 - Aftermath

<-- At the Buckeye Trail, right after Boston, heading for Pine Lane.

The day after the 50K I went for a 6 mile “recovery” run and all the systems tested OK. The results are out and it appears that this is the fastest 50K BT race ever. Two examples: 1) There are 21 runners with time under 5 hours, vs. only 6 last year. 2) The first female runner (Beth Woodward) finished 12th overall with time 4:42. Last year (with a slightly better time) she was 3rd overall. I finished 25th. If I had maintained my pace (for a 4:55 finish) my placement would have been 19th.

About hitting the wall: I have always been proud of my strong and fast finishes in races, including marathons and previous 50Ks. I have never hit the wall in a race. I did not even think that a wall exists for me (for my body, nutrition routine, and distances that I run). So I was surprised how quickly and unexpectedly this came about.

Some people might say, you've run for 28 miles and there were only 3 miles left. Couldn't you just dig deep inside and find the strength to run them, even slowly? It was impossible. It's like saying, this car has been running for 300 miles and now it is out of gas. Can it just run 10 more miles? There was nothing left in the tank, so to speak.

My new system of eating a large breakfast before the run has served me well for up to 24 miles, but it needs to be fine tuned for longer races. If you are curious, here is what I ate at 6:00 am on race day (just one hour before the 7:00 am start): A large bowl of hot cereal with a sliced banana, raisins, walnuts, two teaspoons of peanut butter and honey at the top. Plus, an orange, and I had a glass of Gatorade. Not many people would think of running after this. A nap sounds more appropriate.

I am still glad that my collapse came from lack of energy and not from an injury (common among other runners).

After having completed 5x 50K runs (3 summer, 2 winter) I would like to try my hands (legs?) into something longer. I think I am ready for a 50 mile race. 100 miles is insane (for me, at this point). I wish the Burning River 100 also had a 50 mile section. I guess I can look for something further but I like to run/support local races.

Buckeye 50K 2009 - Race Report

My time goal for this race was under 5 hours. I ran a strong race and consistently achieved or beat my time goals station after station. For example, my time at the half was 2:21:47 vs. 2:26 aim time. The cool weather and firm ground (it had rained enough to make the soil firm) was helping runners achieve fast times.

<--- 5 hours and 5 minutes later... Sprinting for the finish!

In the last aid station (Snowville Rd), with 6 miles left to go, I met my wife and she handed me a bottle of water. I felt fine so I did not stop to eat or drink anything. In retrospect, that was a big mistake. I should have eaten something. I arrived at this station 5 minutes ahead of time, so my projected finish time was 4:55.

The first miles in this last section went fine. I passed a young kid who was apparently falling apart. A bit later I passed 2nd Female runner Kelly Karen, and Plain Dealer columnist Zachary Lewis. Both of these guys were well ahead of me at the half, and they both appeared to be struggling a bit. I passed them easily.

But, with 3 miles to go, I started to feel tired. My pace slowed. I felt hungry and weak. Clearly, I was hitting the proverbial wall. I was out of water. I started walking. I NEEDED FOOD! I kept walking. I looked back and saw Kelly approaching. I asked if she had anything to give me to EAT. She did not. We are only 2.3 miles from the finish.

I arrived at the pavilion, 2 miles from the finish. I was happy to see Susan and Matt waiting there. I asked for food. They only had water. I gladly took water. Bur right there, two people are setting up a picnic. Their van is full with food: All kinds of snacks, chips, popcorn, and cases of pop. I explain that I am running a race and I desperately need food. They are reluctant. I asked for a single can of pop but they refused! "You are not part of our group" they said.

Disappointed, I continue to walk. Everyone that I passed in the last 10 miles, is now passing me, including the young kid. He is half-running, half-walking, but he appears to have a bit more stength than me. I continue to walk. Finally, I see a young lady, holding a basket. I ask for food. "Sorry, I do not have any food, but I have some Gatorade" she says. "YES, please give me Gatorade". She fills half of my bottle. I drink it at the spot. A rush of energy goes through my body and I am able to run again.

Only1.5 miles left to the end. I am happy to be running again. I pass the kid. But I soon need more water or Gatorade and I have nothing. Last 0.7 miles. I am running, but I also take walking breaks. I hear the Brecksville sirens (always at 12 noon - meaning it is now 5 hours into the race). Kiss 5 hours goodbye.

So, I make it to the final stretch. I see my wife and son ready to take pictures. I smile and try to run fast. As I approach the finish line, I see the clock reading 5:04:50, 51, 52, 53. I sprint. If I cannot beat 5 hours, at least I can beat 5:05!

I cross the finish at 5:04:59.

People are congratulating me (sprinting at the end of a 50K, that must be something) and Vince hands me the medal. I am starving so I go straight for the food. Within a minute I eat 5 slices of pizza, with dripping oil and all that. I then hit the cookies. I have never been able to eat right at the end of a race, so this is new to me.

As I lay in the couch, thinking about the race, I have mixed feelings. Even though I did not meet my time goal, my final time is a PR by 10 minutes. I am pleased that I ran 28 strong miles, beating my time predictions. I learned a good lesson about eating during the race. I should have eaten in the last aid station, carry some energy gels and ask my wife to meet me at the pavilion to make sure I was OK (to cover all bases). I will apply what I learned "next year".

Here are my race time splits for the race historians:

Oak Grove - Snowville: Goal: 55 min. Actual time: 53:06
Snowville - Boston: Goal: 49 minutes. Actual time: 49:30
Boston - Pine Lane: Goal 42 minutes. Actual time: 39:11
Pine Lane - Boston: Goal 42 minutes. Actual time: 39:38
Boston - Snowville: Goal 51 minutes. Actual time: 51:34
Snowville to Oak Grove: Goal 60 minutes. Actual time: 71:41

New Age Group!

Today it's my birthday!

This birthday is important because I am entering a new age bracket (50-54). I am now officially an old guy. Over 50 is also known as "Grandmaster" ("Master" is over 40) and some races have a "Grandmaster" award.

That's one good thing about running. You look forward to getting old... A new group of older guys to beat in races, and even a new award to aim for. Great!

Unfortunately, in our area there are many fast runners in the 50-54 group. As a matter of fact, it is easier to win an award in the 45-49 age group than the 50-54 age group. More pressure for me!

Buckeye 50K – Under 5 Hours?

They are predicting a nice cool weather for the Buckeye 50K Trail Run this Saturday so fast times are possible.

This year I have trained very well and I have a goal: Under 5 hours.

Is this goal possible? At first I did not think so, but my training runs went so well, that now I think it is possible.

A bit of history: I have run this race for two years now. The first year (2007) on a cool dry course, my time was 5:14. This was a big surprise since it was my 1st Ultra and I had just started running trails. A friend of mine (we bonded during the training runs) who always finished ahead and less tired, finished the race in 6:30, so my 5:14 (without even carrying water!) was a great achievement. Last year (2008) I did not train well, but put a lot of miles in our vacation in California. The weather on race day was hot and I finished at 5:21. My time was slower, but my placement was better than last year. Plus, I passed 7 runners in the 2nd half.

This year I have trained well and I have also timed my splits, so I know what to expect. My time during the run of the half (Oak Grove to Pine Lane) was 2:26. It felt that the pace was too fast at the time, but I have improved a bit since then. So now my goal is to run the first half in 2:26 and the second half in 3:34. That's only 8 minute difference between the two halves. If you look at last year's results (first time the half times are recorded) very few runners had such a small difference. Actually, from those who run the race under 6 hours, only two have a better difference: Kam Lee (8 minutes) and Matt Pazderak (4 minutes). My difference was 15 minutes and it was the 6th best.

Here are the times I aim to run each section (first half, second half, difference in parenthesis)

Oak Grove - Snowville Rd (6 miles): 55, 60 (5)
Snowville Rd - Boston (5.3 miles): 49, 51 (2)
Boston - Pine Lane (4.2 miles): 42, 42 (0)
Total: 2:26 + 2:34 = 5:00 (8)

My specialty is the last leg (Snowville to Oak Grove) which I have now run many times (easy for me, since I live in Brecksville, 1 mile from the entrance to the BT on Snowville Rd and I run through it to go to our fitness class, twice a week). Most runners are too tired by then, and run this leg very slowly. If I arrive at Snowville by 4 hours, I think I can finish under 5 hours.

Last night I happened to read E-Speed's (Elizabeth H.) blog where she recorded her split times from last year's 50K. This is very informative (the only published split times I have seen). Here they are (rounded to the next minute):

Oak Grove - Snowville Rd (6 miles): 53, 65 (12)
Snowville Rd - Boston (5.3 miles): 49, 53 (4)
Boston - Pine Lane (4.2 miles): 41, 41 (0)
Total: 2:22 + 2:39 = 5:02 (17)

Looks like she slowed down quite a bit after Boston in the way back. As a friend said, the race really starts after Boston.... Bodies of exhausted runners are scattered all over the place from Boston to Oak Grove :) Hopefully this will not happen to me. The trick is to try and preserve strength during the first half. I always walk the uphills. Whatever time I lose walking, I make up running them down fast in the return.

Broadview Heights 5K – 19:19 !!!

I had signed up for the Broadview Hts 5K before Muddy Paws, because I want to support local races (my city, Brecksville, and Broadview Hts share schools). But after running Muddy Paws 10 miles yesterday, I was wondering if that was a good idea. Especially since I have my big race, the 50K Buckeye Trail next Saturday.

My dream has always been to break 20 minutes in the 5K. My 5K PR is 20:06 from 2005. But I have shifted to longer races and when there is a choice of 5K and a longer distance, I always run the longer distance. This year I decided to try and break the 20 minute 5K barrier. I selected two races. This was the first try and Independence 5K (in August) is the second.

My wife (Liz) also signed up, and, worried about her 5K time, drove the course and told me there was a huge uphill very close to the start, about 1/2 mile long. So this did not look like a PR course. Plus, we heard from other runners that there is a 2nd hill at the turn-around point. Oh well, it is a nice sunny & cool day (58F in the morning) so, let's go!

The race started at 8:30 am. A short flat distance, then turn left and up the hill for the first 1/2 mile. Surprisingly, I am passing people right and left, going up the hill. Then turn left at Parkway Drive. I kept passing people. My first mile time is 6:08! Wow! This is an amazing time, considering that 1/3 this mile was uphill!!! I have never run a mile that fast in a race.

At the turn around point I am counting the runners in front of me. I am 6th overall! I cross paths with Liz and she is yelling at me "number 6!!!" It seems unbelievable.... [we must have miscounted because the official results show that I am 5th overall]

But, I start to get tired. I know I cannot catch the guy in front... I am only trying to hang into 6th place. I am slowing down but keep pushing. If I make it to the last 1/2 mile, all downhill, I will be fine, I am thinking, because I am a fast downhill runner. It seems it's taking for ever to get to that point. I have my usual recurring nightmares and fears of quitting in the middle of the race (“at least, my time will be good, even if I walk the rest”, I am thinking)

Finally, I make it to the end of the road and turn right for the downhill... I try to run the downhill as fast as I can, but my legs are tired... I am now at the bottom of the hill. The guy behind me is getting closer. We turn right and we are at the final stretch. I can see/hear him, trying to catch up. But, surprisingly, I have enough strength for a sprint! So, I sprint to the finish, maintaining 6th place overall, and finishing at 19:26!!! (Official chip time: 19:19)

Needless to say, I am very happy! My goal of under 20 minutes 5K is fulfilled. Not only that, but, if you look at my Running Goal Times blog, even my “life time goal” of 19:30 is fulfilled! Great! I can now relax and stop running :) Or… maybe I can aim for 19 minutes? Hmmm….

I attribute this success to three factors:
1. My “3 pm diet” (159.5 lbs in the morning)
2. The Buckeye trail training. I have been running a lot of hard miles lately.
3. Speedwork sessions every Wednesday, thanks to Liz who makes me do them!

Back to the race… I stayed around the finish to take a picture of Liz... She finished at 26:17, a new PR for her too, and good for 3rd place Age award (50-54).

The Broadview Hts Mayor finished just a step in front of her. He must be in my age group because when he handed my award (1st age group 45-49) he said something like "I will never be as fast as you". I felt like saying "That's OK, I will never be a mayor either".

This concludes a good race weekend for me... Now rest and relaxation, in preparation for the Buckeye 50K. My goal is to run it under 5 hours. More about this in the blog to come.

Muddy Paws 10 Mile Trail Race

This turned out to be a very good race weekend for me... In preparation for the 50K Buckeye Trail next Saturday, I had the fine idea to run two "tune up" races this weekend, the Muddy Paws 10 miler on Saturday and the Broadview Heights 5K on Sunday (today)

This was the first time running the Muddy Paws 10 mile Trail race and I won first place in my age group with 1:22:28 (16/144 runners).

It was a good race, a bit warm and humid but it did not rain... This was a new course this year and apparently faster than the previous one (comparing the results). My Garmin says it was 10 1/4 mile long and I believe it because it always measures race courses shorter, never longer.

The course consists of two 5 mile loops. The first 3.5 miles are in open grass fields mainly, while the last 1.5 miles of the loop were my favorite because it reminded me of the Buckeye Trail (roots, etc). Vince called this part “Technical”. I wonder whey they call it “Technical” when it is really more “natural”?

Overall, I was pleased with my time and the fact that I finished ahead of the 15 year old "child prodigy", Rachel, winner (F) of last year's winter 50K. But I was way behind the first two female runners, Beth and Shanna. At some point I was entertaining thoughts of stopping after the first 5 miles but decided to go on. Thanks E-Speed for calling my name when I was completing the first loop… It was encouraging.

I stayed for the awards and liked the fact that Vince gave away nice merchandise for awards, even though the 5 milers got first choice. The size 13 sandals left were too large for me, so I got a pair of size 9 for my wife.

I have to train Vince to pronounce my last name correctly. He sounds it like Themelius, but there is no "u". He will have to practice because it looks like he will be saying more often :) (with wife and daughter running too).

Jim Klett 2009

Just like last year, we woke up to a rainy day. My weight was down to 162 lbs, the lowest it's ever been before any race, ever! (The 3pm "diet" is paying off!)

It was raining really hard in the morning of the race, but five minutes before the start, it stopped raining. I am glad I procrastinated warming up, so I ran relatively dry :)

The first mile was fast as expected (downhill). I was running along with Jamie and Jen, but I pulled ahead around mile 3. First 4 mile splits: 6:29, 6:39, 6:41, 6:54. The hills start at mile 5. Pace slows as expected: 7:23, 7:06. Last 0.2 split: 6:41.

I am a bit disappointed that my times are creeping up. I want one day to be able to keep up a 6:30 pace in the 10K.

My official time: 42:46. I finished 2nd/14 in my age group and 25/203 overall. This was my 2nd best time in 6 years of running the Jim Klett 10K.

I turn 50 in July so I always look at the next age group results. There some fast runners there. I would have placed 6th! Normally, I would be happy to advance to the next age group... but not this time! :) I have to get faster quickly!

Liz’s time was 27:01 in the 5K (best time this year, but her PR is 26:20 from the Buckeye 5K last year). She won 2nd place in her age group. As a matter of fact, this was the 2nd fastest time in females over 40. Lea finished 5th in her age group with 31:02. She was happy she ran the entire distance.

We stayed for the awards and enjoyed a nice breakfast. The Jim Klett race is becoming a nice family running tradition.

Weight Loss with the 3pm diet

Lately, I have been doing the “3pm diet”. This is not a revolutionary concept. As a matter of fact, it is not a diet at all. It is not a secret either, but someone managed to write a book, titled “The 3:00 PM Secret”. Here is the link to the publisher’s web page.
And here is the book in Amazon.

The principle is very simple: Stop eating at 3 pm. Or, as the author likes to say, eat a nutritious breakfast, a nutritious lunch, a snack at 2:30, and then you are done. It is really amazing that an entire book was written around this concept. So, basically, you are skipping dinner and go without eating from 2:30pm to maybe 7:30am, a total of 17 hours or so.

Two questions come in mind: 1) Why? 2) How?

Regarding the "why", the author goes into great lengths to prove that this kind of eating schedule has many advantages, both in terms of weight loss and in terms of a lifestyle: 1) By eating most of your calories in the morning, you can burn them later in the day, so you end up losing weight. 2) You don’t need to worry about cooking & cleaning dishes in the evening and you have more time and energy to devote to a hobby or other pursuits.

I definitely agree with #2. Most people come home from work, overeat, and then are too tired digesting to do anything productive, so they end up laying on the couch, watching TV (and snacking). Not having to worry about dinner in a sense frees you and gives you more time for productive work.

Point #1 is questionable. They are those who say, it does not matter when you eat. You can eat all your calories in one meal, eat only in the morning, eat only in the evening, or eat many small meals during the day. It is irrelevant. All that matters is how much goes in and how much goes out (via exercise). I am not sure I agree with this mechanistic view of the body, but one thing is certain: It is very difficult to overeat for breakfast and lunch. The majority of the calories are consumed in the evening. So by skipping dinner you can lose (or maintain) weight, depending on how much you eat in the morning.

I have been doing this for a week now and have already lost a couple of pounds, even though I tend to eat a lot. I work at home so after my breakfast at 7am, I usually eat a 2nd breakfast around 9am. So I eat three meals. Someone with an office work will most probably eat less and weight loss is almost certain.

Now, to the “how” My wife cannot believe that I just stop eating after 3pm. But it is very easy for me. My body is now used to this, and does not expect food. I feel fine. I don’t get hungry, and I go to bed for a good night’s sleep with my digestive system taking a break.

I expect that a lot of people have a problem with this concept, especially if they like to entertain or go out to eat, or just enjoy eating and have nothing productive to do in the evening. There are people (my wife is one) who look forward to eating dinner. These are the people who will not even agree to try this. The book says it is OK to have something light, like a soup, and it even gives you two “free days” a week. So, the 3pm is not etched in stone. I personally don’t need the freebies. It would be nice if my wife was also in the same schedule, but I don’t care. When she cooks dinner and asks me if I want to eat, I politely refuse and ask her to save my portion for lunch tomorrow.

There are people (in Greece for example) who routinely do not eat breakfast (I used to do this). So, they are going without eating for long periods, but at a different time of the day. There is even a book called “The Fast-5 Diet” which advocates skipping breakfast and lunch and only eat between 5pm and 10pm (thus a fast minus this 5 hour window). In one sense, this is exactly the opposite of the “3pm diet”, yet there is no question that both methods could work. It is difficult to eat a lot in a short window of time during the day (even though I am sure some people can do it). At the end, it might be a matter of lifestyle, and I definitely prefer eating early than late in the day.

I am also doing something that I have not done before: I eat breakfast before long morning runs (for example the Sunday trail runs for the Buckeye 50K race). I find that this gives me more energy later in the run. I would not do that for short runs or fast races, only for long slow runs.

I am happy that someone wrote a book about this. I have been interested in weight loss since I started running in 2001. It is a long story, but, briefly, I was 225 lbs in 2001 and dropped to 175 after one year, by just running and without any other adjustments in my diet. After the first year, I fell in love with running. I soon realized that I could enjoy running more, and be better at it, if I lost even more weight. But it is not easy now that I work at home and I am close to my “ideal” weight. I have tried different things, including not eating after a certain time (around 5pm). This personal version of the 3pm diet worked, but I did not keep it up. Now that I know that someone else has thought long enough about this and even wrote a book, I feel encouraged to try it again. It is not something I made up. It is now official.

Bottom line: This 3pm concept is helping me lose or maintain weight and I enjoy the lifestyle benefits I get from it. I have more energy in my long morning runs, and more time for productive work in the evening.

Running Time Goals

They say that a runner achieves his/her PRs within 5-10 years from when they start running. It does not matter if they start at 25 or 55, the rule still applies. That’s because it takes a couple of years to build up strength and running endurance. Then “old age” catches up with you. Your times will only go down from there on. I started running in 2001. My first race (5K, 21:27) was in 2002. Eight years later I think I still have room to improve my race times in all distances (especially if I lose weight, as I plan to do).

Here is my wish list:

Distance ------Time Now (Pace) VO2max ------ Goal Time (Pace) VO2max
5K --------------20.06 (6:32) 49.5 ------------------19:30 (6:17) 51.3
10K -------------41:20 (6:37) 49.8 ------------------40 (6:26) 51.9
10mi ------------1:08:31 (6:51) 50.0 ----------------1:06 (6:36) 52.2
½ Marathon ----1:32:50 (7:05) 49.2 ----------------1:30 (6:52) 51.0
Marathon------- 3:22:4 7 (7:44) 46.5 ----------------3:10 (7:15) 50.2

It appears that my current VO2 max is around 49-50. I need to increase it to 51 to 52 and then I will achieve my goal times.

Predictions!

I have been fascinated with running times predictions, i.e., predicting your time in one race, based on times in other races, ever since I read a 1977 book by Manfred Steffny "Marathoning" (see previous blog). From Manfred’s book I first read about the possibility of predicting your marathon time, based on your 10K time. He gives a very simple formula:

Marathon time = 10K time x 4.666 (1)
He later modified to: 10K in 30 minutes -> Marathon in 2:20. For every extra minute in 10K, add 5 minutes to the marathon (2)
A more conservative estimate (recommended for beginners) is even more simple: Marathon Time = 10K time x 5 (3).

Right now my 10K PR is 41:20 (2007). My best marathon time is 3:22 (2009).

(1) 41:20 x 4.666 = 3:13
(2) 2:20 + 5x(41:20 – 30) = 2:20 + 56:30 = 3:16:30
(3) 41:20 x 5 = 3:26:30

Seems like my actual time is between (2) and (3). I think formula (3) is more typical for people without enough marathon experience/training and it is very easy to remember: Formula (1) might be my upper limit and (2) something to aim for.

Here is a table published in Manfred Steffny’s book:

Max. possible Realistic
10Km marathon time marathon time
------ ------------- -------------
27:00 2:05:00 2:08:30
28:00 2:10:00 2:14:00
29:00 2:15:00 2:19:30
30:00 2:20:00 2:25:00
31:00 2:25:00 2:30:30
32:00 2:30:00 2:36:00
33:00 2:35:00 2:43:00
34:00 2:40:00 2:49:00
35:00 2:45:00 2:55:00
36:00 2:50:00 3:00:00
37:00 2:55:00 3:07:00
38:00 3:00:00 3:15:00
39:00 3:05:00 3:20:00
40:00 3:10:00 3:25:00
42:30 3:22:00 3:42:30
45:00 3:35:00 4:00:00
47:30 3:47:30 4:20:00
50:00 4:00:00 4:40:00

The Realist time is more appropriate for someone’s first marathons. The Table stops at 50min. Older runners and women can use the formulas.

I have devised two more simple formulas to predict marathon times from 10mile and ½ Marathon times:

(4) Marathon = (10 mile time) x 3
(5) Marathon = (1/2 Marathon) x 2 + 15 minutes

(4) My 10mile PR is 1:08:31 (2007) x 3 = 3:25:33
(5) My ½ Marathon PR is 1:32:50 (2008) x 2 + 15min = 3:20:40

Both are reasonable.

But the mother of all prediction calculators in the internet is here:
http://www.runningforfitness.org/calc/rp.php

You enter your age, gender, and one race time and it gives you several predictors, plus an average prediction. Cool! But there is more in this web site... It will also calculate how weight loss will affect your running times and more.

Staying on the topic of Marathon time predictions, I tried this web site and here is what I get:

Distance PR ----------- Predicted Marathon
5K – 20:06 -------------------- 3:10:33 - 3:25:57
10K – 41:20 ------------------ 3:10:11 – 3:24:52
10 miles – 1:08:31 ---------- 3:10:35 – 3:23:29
½ Marathon = 1:32:50 ----- 3:13:57 – 3:25:09

The first marathon predicted time is an average of several formulas. The 2nd time is called the “Purdy Formula” and it seems more realistic to me. To read more about these formulas, go to the link above.